Work it out
The starting values are an illustration, not a suggested trade or allocation.
Your inputs are not sent to a server or stored by this calculator.
Worked example
The 98 and 102 thresholds are deliberately hypothetical. The tool prints these user-supplied branches and does not turn them into a forecast.
Start with a verifiable event
Write the event identity, scheduled time, timezone and primary publication source. This is your input, not a calendar supplied by the tool. An unscheduled headline may lack a reliable initial timestamp.
Check whether you are reading a first release, correction or commentary about an older item. Those are different pieces of evidence and belong in different records.
Define the baseline before the result
Above and below only have meaning relative to a baseline. State whether the reference is your own assumption, a previous observation or an externally sourced estimate.
Do not label your assumption as market consensus without an attributable source. If the baseline changes, keep both versions and their observation times.
Write observable branches
Use thresholds or specific conditions for the above-baseline and below-baseline branches. Then describe an interpretation separately from any claim about the price response.
The mixed branch is useful for conflicting components or revisions. A single headline number can obscure information that does not fit a simple better-or-worse label.
Include the option to pause interpretation
Record a condition that makes the evidence insufficient: a delayed release, missing methodology, conflicting timestamps or an unverified source. This avoids forcing every event into a directional conclusion.
The pause field is a written condition. The tool does not monitor the event, notify you, manage risk limits or stop an existing order.
Compare the record with what actually happened
After the event, preserve the original sheet and write a separate observation of the released data and market response. A correct description of the data and a correct prediction of price are different achievements.
The worksheet does not assign probabilities or create a track record. Its value is keeping assumptions visible so that later review is less dependent on memory.
What this tool does not calculate
- Planning template only; no current-event facts, probabilities or market forecasts.
- A baseline entered by the user is not independently verified consensus.
Common questions
Does the page supply current economic news?
No. Enter and verify the event and source yourself. No news feed or release calendar is connected.
Does an above-baseline result imply a price rise?
No. Price responses depend on context, expectations, positioning and other information. The worksheet keeps the observation separate from that interpretation.
Are branch probabilities calculated?
No. All three branches are text records; no probabilities are assigned or implied.
Sources & method
An original calculation tool built with AI assistance. Its method and limits are documented here, and calculation examples are checked with automated tests.
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